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The Secret Board -> Pre-Election Prediction Thread
 
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  Pacer Fan
 
November 4, 2008 8:06:47 pm
 
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Not one state has kept its polls open?

Early voting.

 
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  Cortez the Killer
 
November 4, 2008 8:12:55 pm
 
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quote:
Ridge Runner said...
Yes, and if Obama is elected as expected, I won't be the football fan who hopes his team loses so the coach will get fired. I won't hope that AMerica goes into a deep economic tailspin. I hope the country will thrive and prosper despite the disagreements I may have over his policies. If you look back over the history of the country, particularly in the 20th century, we've seen good economic times and bad under each party, we've seen the country taken to war under both parties, and I don't think any one party has all the answers.




 
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  cws
 
November 4, 2008 8:39:28 pm
 
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quote:
Ridge Runner said...
quote:
cheapseats said...

I'll be as proud of my country the 1st time we elect a black president as I will for a female president. I may not think Palin is a good VP candidate, but there are times and places for saying "you know what? YAY fucking US." election days is one of those days.

We can all disagree about this that and the other thing, but win or lose, we all live in the best fucking country on the planet.



Yes, and if Obama is elected as expected, I won't be the football fan who hopes his team loses so the coach will get fired. I won't hope that AMerica goes into a deep economic tailspin. I hope the country will thrive and prosper despite the disagreements I may have over his policies. If you look back over the history of the country, particularly in the 20th century, we've seen good economic times and bad under each party, we've seen the country taken to war under both parties, and I don't think any one party has all the answers.



A-fucking-gree!

I really don't have a horse in this race, not enamoured with the direction that either guy wants to take. But regarless of the outcome, I hope the winner proves me wrong and rights the ship (so to speak). That's all I want, don't care who does it. And I pity the people who want things to go badly, or at least not good, when a candidate from "their" party doesn't win. To me, those are people with their priorities so very far out of whack.

And if what I read earlier is true,**** near the entire world is watching right now. I kinda expected something like this this, but maybe not to this degree. So cheaps is definitely right, we are the best fucking country on the planet!

 
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  tvwxman
 
November 4, 2008 8:59:59 pm
 
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Adding to that....

I really, really, really don't want to see the "Don't blame me, I voted for McCain" or the "Countdown to 2012-- end of an error" Tshirts, bumper stickers and the rest of the childish crap we've seen over the past few years.

I hope that republicans and conservatives are adults, suck it up and deal with the next 4 years, learn the lessons they need to and become a verifiable opposition party.

 
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  thrashin
 
November 4, 2008 9:07:37 pm
 
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quote:
tvwxman said...
Adding to that....

I really, really, really don't want to see the "Don't blame me, I voted for McCain" or the "Countdown to 2012-- end of an error" Tshirts, bumper stickers and the rest of the childish crap we've seen over the past few years.

I hope that republicans and conservatives are adults, suck it up and deal with the next 4 years, learn the lessons they need to and become a verifiable opposition party.



Just out of curiousity why would you not want to see this. It worked for the Democrats, who have mainly run as I Ain't a Republican and it appears to have worked wonders for them. I think somone feeding them a HUGE dose of their same medicine would be irony at its best. Personally I HOPE whoever wins gets back to representing the people and not the party, but I don't see it happening.

 
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  behind the net
 
November 4, 2008 10:04:02 pm
 
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It is over Iowa to Obama. Throw in Cali, OR, and WA it is a done deal, no matter what happens in VA, NC, or FL.
 
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  The Falconer
 
November 5, 2008 1:35:45 pm
 
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quote:
The Falconer said...

Personally I think the pre-election polls have probably underestimated the size of Obama's win. This is going to be a very strong year for Democrats--much like 1980 and 1994 were strong years for Republicans. These things run in cycles and Democrats have the wind at their back this election.

My pre-election predictions are as follows.

President: Obama 378-157 electoral votes, 54%-44% popular vote

Congress: Dem +29 US House, Dem +8 US Senate

I think Obama carries usually Republican voting OH, NC, IN, ND and MT and swing states like PA, MO, NM, CO, NV. I think GA will be extremely close, but I kept it in the R column.


quote:
The Falconer said...

Predicted: 54-44 = +10
Actual: 53-46 = +7
I was wrong on the popular vote. I went with surveys that included cell phone only households and I expected GOP turnout to be more down than it was.

Electoral
Predicted: 378-157
Actual: 349-163

If Obama holds in MO and NC I will be pretty close.

Senate
Predicted: +8 D
+6 D with 3 possible D pickups still too close to call.
It will be dead on if MN and OR end up Democratic (Democratic leaning areas have some outstanding votes to count in both states). GA looks to be headed to a runoff.

House
Predicted +29 D
Actual based who is leading: +22
A couple of Republican wins in KS 2 and LA 6 held down Democratic gains.

quote:
thrasherville said...
Hey The Falconer, can we get your state by state breakdown?



Obama:
ME
NH
VT
MA
RI
CT
NY
NJ
PA
DE
MD
DC
VA
NC
FL
OH
MI
WI
IN
IL
MN
IA
MO
ND
MT
CO
NM
NV
WA
OR
CA
HI

McCain:
WV
KY
TN
SC
GA
AL
MS
AR
LA
TX
OK
KS
NE
SD
WY
ID
UT
AZ
AK



Missed on ND and MT will get the other 48 states correct if MO and NC end up in Dem column.

 
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  THRASHERVILLE
 
November 5, 2008 1:58:22 pm
 
  Magically Delicious!

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Lucky guesses... Too many ex-military peeps in ND. A majority of the population is stationed at the Air Bases in Grand Forks and Minot. Lots of people take up residence there. I am pretty sure ThrasherDan did...
 
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  Ridge Runner
 
November 5, 2008 2:08:29 pm
 
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quote:
The Falconer said...

Missed on ND and MT will get the other 48 states correct if MO and NC end up in Dem column.



Uh, that's kind of being a dick, coming on here and bragging about predictions that came true.


 
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  H.A.
 
November 5, 2008 2:14:42 pm
 
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quote:
Ridge Runner said...
quote:
The Falconer said...

Missed on ND and MT will get the other 48 states correct if MO and NC end up in Dem column.



Uh, that's kind of being a dick, coming on here and bragging about predictions that came true.




Vols Fans For McCain are just bitter today.



 
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  The Falconer
 
November 5, 2008 3:15:18 pm
 
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quote:
Ridge Runner said...
quote:
The Falconer said...

Missed on ND and MT will get the other 48 states correct if MO and NC end up in Dem column.



Uh, that's kind of being a dick, coming on here and bragging about predictions that came true.




Part of forecasting is looking at what you got right and what you got wrong and trying to improve on what you got wrong.

Sorry if you think it is dickish, but I also pointed out that I missed the popular vote by quite a bit.


 
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  Ridge Runner
 
November 5, 2008 3:19:33 pm
 
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Actually, the post was meant to be self-deprecating as I have been known to trumpet a football prediction or two coming true. Nobody caught it.
 
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  Millwood
 
November 5, 2008 3:25:04 pm
 
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quote:
Ridge Runner said...
Actually, the post was meant to be self-deprecating as I have been known to trumpet a football prediction or two coming true. Nobody caught it.




No I caught it. But it still doesn't cover up the fact that The Falconer is a tremendous dick.


 
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  Ridge Runner
 
November 5, 2008 3:34:34 pm
 
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quote:
Millwood said...
quote:
Ridge Runner said...
Actually, the post was meant to be self-deprecating as I have been known to trumpet a football prediction or two coming true. Nobody caught it.




No I caught it. But it still doesn't cover up the fact that The Falconer is a tremendous dick.




Well, there is that.

 
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  Pacer Fan
 
November 5, 2008 3:35:39 pm
 
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quote:
The Falconer said...
I also pointed out that I missed the popular vote by quite a bit.



Thanks to Sarah Palin there was a bigger Republican College Perfesser turnout than expected.


 
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  The Falconer
 
November 5, 2008 3:44:01 pm
 
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quote:
pacer fan said...
quote:
The Falconer said...
I also pointed out that I missed the popular vote by quite a bit.



Thanks to Sarah Palin there was a bigger Republican College Perfesser turnout than expected.




It does appear that Palin mobilized the GOP base more than I expected. Also the early voting turnout was not an indicator of a big jump in total turnout in GA--it looks like the really excited people voted early and more grumpy GOPers voted late.

 
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  Pacer Fan
 
November 5, 2008 3:45:45 pm
 
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quote:
The Falconer said...
...grumpy GOPers voted late...



Actually I voted early.

 
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  Gus
 
November 5, 2008 3:47:03 pm
 
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quote:
pacer fan said...
quote:
The Falconer said...
...grumpy GOPers voted late...



Actually I voted early.



yeah, but i voted late....

 
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  The Falconer
 
November 5, 2008 3:48:30 pm
 
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quote:
Ridge Runner said...
Actually, the post was meant to be self-deprecating as I have been known to trumpet a football prediction or two coming true. Nobody caught it.



OK. I don't read all the college football threads.
I'm more of baseball hockey guy myself.
If you're a Lions fan you have to have other things to occupy your time.

 
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  Ridge Runner
 
November 5, 2008 3:50:12 pm
 
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quote:
The Falconer said...
quote:
Ridge Runner said...
Actually, the post was meant to be self-deprecating as I have been known to trumpet a football prediction or two coming true. Nobody caught it.



OK. I don't read all the college football threads.
I'm more of baseball hockey guy myself.
If you're a Lions fan you have to have other things to occupy your time.



Apparently no one else does either. That's why I've stopped doing them.


 
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